Reeves gave a Spring Statement without much substance

Lem Bingley, PW editor

The revised label seems appropriate given there was little of any weight in the event. Politicians rarely hold fast to their promises, but Reeves stuck to her pledge to make major policy interventions only once a year, in the Budget.

As the Institute for Government (IfG) noted, the lack of content was probably just as well. Away from the green benches of the Commons, global events were making Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts even more doubtful than usual. “Had she decided on flashy announcements […] she might have been forced to backtrack as the economic impacts of the growing conflict in the Middle East become clearer,” the IfG wrote.

The lack of news disappointed those hoping a helpful rabbit or two might emerge from the chancellor’s topper.

Rumours of a new Help to Buy-style stimulus for housebuilders proved to be no more than chatter. And Reeves was silent on the looming wave of business rates increases, leaving it to the OBR to set out an expected 10% rise in the overall rates take – totalling £37bn in 2026-27 – following the April revaluation.

Whether the chancellor can leave the nation’s levers alone until the autumn is another matter.

The lack of news disappointed those hoping a helpful rabbit or two might emerge from the chancellor’s topper

“Events in the Middle East have complicated the fiscal picture,” observed Faye Church, senior planning director at Rathbones, explaining that a sustained oil-price hike would raise transport costs, stoke inflation and most likely keep interest rates higher for longer.

“Geopolitical shocks also rarely arrive neatly,” she added. “They tend to push governments into reactive choices – whether that means higher defence spending, fresh support to head off another inflation flare-up or renewed pressure to keep energy costs contained. Any of these could quickly reshuffle fiscal priorities.”

Energy costs tend to deliver a double-whammy to development. Aside from their economic influence, higher fuel bills make development more costly. As Karl Horton, data services director at the Building Cost Information Service, pointed out: “[We] could see contractors and subcontractors paying more for transport and materials. This would place upward pressure on tender prices and could constrain project viability.”

One major surprise did emerge from the Spring Forecast. In her speech to the Commons, Reeves announced she would give her second Mais Lecture later this month.

That speech, hosted by Bayes Business School, has been given in the past by prime ministers, chancellors, governors of the Bank of England and assorted other luminaries since the series began in 1978. Reeves gave a memorable lecture in 2024, while in opposition, setting out Labour’s plans to intervene in planning and to follow fiscal rules, among other policies.

Nobody – until now – has been asked to come back for an encore.

It would be unfortunate for the organisers if Reeves’ precedent-breaking lecture proved to be content free.

Perhaps that explains the Treasury’s tinkering with terminology. This week we got the Spring Forecast – maybe the real statement is yet to come.